Store Glacier, West Greenland. Is there a “tipping point” at which a critical mass of melting polar ice sheets could trigger a catastrophic rise in coastal flooding around the world? (Source: Eric Rignot, JPL)
MIT CS3 launches ‘Tipping Points’ workshop series
First workshop explores concept and potential research directions
Is there a “tipping point” at which a critical mass of melting polar ice sheets could trigger a catastrophic rise in coastal flooding around the world? Or the Amazon rainforest shrinks enough to dramatically accelerate biodiversity loss? Or geopolitical tensions lead the global economy to collapse? The term has commonly been associated with “failures,” “breakpoints,” “thresholds,” “unintended consequences” and “cascading and compounding risks” across multiple systems. Yet other tipping point examples also highlight how “little changes” and seemingly “small actions” can make “big differences” and improvements in our lives. Despite many compelling cases, key scientific challenges remain in the metrics, models and supporting analyses needed to reliably represent, simulate and predict the complex, multi-system relationships and abrupt behaviors that define a tipping point.
Amid growing concern about environmental and socioeconomic “tipping point” events, the MIT Center for Sustainability Science and Strategy (CS3) has launched a new, interactive workshop series aimed at advancing research discussions and collaborations to better understand, predict and inform proactive responses to their potential emergence. The kickoff Tipping Points workshop, held on February 27 on Zoom and facilitated by CS3 Deputy Director C. Adam Schlosser and Principal Research Scientist Jennifer Morris, included an overview of the concept, three flash talks on tipping points science and its potential application, and breakout sessions to identify key research challenges and opportunities.
Morris traced the nearly 150-year history of the term, which has been used to describe apparently sudden shifts in ecological and epidemiological phenomena, human behavior, and large Earth systems. In scientific literature it has typically described a rapid, self-amplifying and sometimes irreversible transformation from one stable state to another.
“Scientists of different disciplines have referred to a ‘tipping point’ as both a technical term and a metaphor to communicate complex concepts to a broad audience,” she said.
Postdoctoral associate Etienne Berthet highlighted what he views as the critical link between environmental tipping points—thresholds beyond which certain critical, large-scale components of the Earth system can be tipped into a qualitatively new state, often characterized by far-reaching changes to conditions on Earth—and planetary boundaries—demarcations for where various risks threaten long-term human survival and development. Despite ongoing debates about how best to quantify these boundaries, Earth-system scientists have proposed biophysical thresholds that delineate safe operating spaces for human activities, ranging from atmospheric carbon dioxide levels to ocean acidification. Of the nine identified planetary boundaries, researchers have argued that six have already been crossed.
“Crossing a planetary boundary does not necessarily indicate that a tipping point has been reached; however, knowledge of tipping points helps refine planetary boundaries to avert irreversible damage,” said Berthet. “Further study of both phenomenon in tandem could help decision-makers manage environmental changes holistically.”
CS3 Principal Research Scientist Angelo Gurgel presented an example study of how computer modeling could be used to assess the likelihood of the emergence of a tipping point within a specified region and timeframe. Using modeled projections, the study sought to determine if multiple, compounding environmental and socioeconomic stressors—separately or in aggregate—might drastically impact agricultural land use in the U.S. between 2020 and 2050.
“We tested several drivers of land-use change, including more population growth, economic growth, and climate impacts,” said Gurgel. “All of the forces we modeled together did not indicate a tipping point.”
MIT Professor of Management Emeritus Henry Jacoby, a CS3 faculty affiliate and co-founder of CS3 precursor Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, explored how the science of tipping points is impacting decision-making. He noted that sea-level rise is already concerning coastal planners, and end-of-century estimates show huge differences in social and environmental implications.
“Planners are left to figure out what to do with this ambiguity,” he said. “Can we do better in drawing out the info we already have in existing research and analysis? And what are the most effective ways to put this info in a form that’s meaningful for coastal planning?”
Participants of four breakout groups discussed examples of tipping points in (and between) physical and social systems; the relevance of the concept for organizing research; how research might address tipping points (or alternative concepts); and desired topics for future workshops. Key concerns included the need to define/measure/model tipping points more rigorously, and to communicate the concept more effectively to decision-makers and to the public.
This first workshop was intended to set the stage for subsequent workshops in the series that take deeper dives into different areas of tipping points research and cross-cutting issues.
The workshop video and presentation slides can be viewed on the Tipping Points Workshop event page.